热带气旋的短期气候预报检验

用非线性预报的方法，作西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国、登陆广东热带气旋的短期气候预测，用逐日气压场作登陆广东热带气旋的时段和地段以及南海海面带气旋出现的时间的气候预测。对近3年的热带气候预报进行检验，效果较满意。     

我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

INTEGRATED MODELING FOR WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES AND SPATIAL EFFECTS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an optimization framework for prioritizing sites for wetlands restoration on a watershed or landscape scale. The framework is designed for analyzing the potential environmental impacts of alternative management strategies while accounting for economic constraints, thereby aiding decision makers in explicitly considering multiple management objectives. The modeling strategy consists of two phases. First, relationships between the configuration of land use types in a watershed and valued ecosystem services are specified mathematically. Second, those functions are incorporated into a spatial optimization model that allows comparisons of the expected environmental impacts and economic costs of management strategies that change the configuration of land use in the watershed. By way of a stylized example, this paper develops the general structure of the framework, presents simulation results based on two production functions for ecosystem services, and discusses the potential utility of the methodology for watershed management.     

APPLICATION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A National Pilot Project (NPP) on Livestock and the Environment was initiated in 1992 to help provide solutions to environmental problems associated with livestock production. A major development of the NPP was the Comprehensive Economic and Environmental Optimization Tool‐Livestock and Poultry (CEEOT‐LP), an integrated modeling system designed to produce economic and environmental indicators for alternative policy scenarios applied to intensive livestock production watersheds. The system consists of a farm‐level economic model (FEM) and two environmental models: the field‐scale APEX model and the watershed‐level SWAT model. To date, CEEOT‐LP has been applied to two watersheds in Texas and one in Iowa. Predicted reductions in P losses for two P‐based manure application rate scenarios, relative to baseline conditions, ranged from ?4 to ?54 percent across the three watersheds; however, N loss impacts ranged from a decrease of 34 percent to an increase of 79 percent. For five other alternative scenarios that were simulated for only one watershed, N and P loss impacts ranged between a reduction of 78 percent to an increase of 20 percent. Aggregate watershed‐level economic impacts of the seven scenarios spanned a spectrum of a 27 percent decrease to a 25 percent increase in profit, relative to the baseline.     

SHORT TERM BENTHIC COLONIZATION DYNAMICS IN AN AGRICULTURAL STREAM RECOVERING FROM SLAUGHTERHOUSE EFFLUENTS1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to assess short term, macroinvertebrate colonization dynamics and biofilm accumulation in two agricultural streams, one of which had been recently exposed to chronic, intermittent organic effluents from a slaughterhouse. During the winter and summer, macroinvertebrates and biofilm were collected from brick substrates from four or three sites in the streams on a geometric time schedule (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, and 32 days of exposure). Invertebrate total densities stabilized quickly, but the mass of biofilm increased throughout the study periods. Invertebrate community indices (diversity, evenness, dominance, richness) differed between the unaffected, “agricultural reference” sites and the affected sites, below the point source. All sites were dominated by Baetis bicaudatus (mayfly), Hydrobia sp. (gastropod), and Dugesia tigrina (Turbellaria). Response of these taxa differed between seasons and exposure to organic effluents. Stream invertebrate colonization processes showed evidence of the perturbation after the inflow of organic effluents had stopped from the slaughterhouse. Chronic organic enrichment reduced the species richness in the potential pool of colonists. Three months after the organic inputs had stopped, colonization timing and community structure was not yet at levels evident in reference and upstream sites.     

DETERMINATION OF BEST TIMING FOR POULTRY WASTE DISPOSAL: A MODELING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Confined production of poultry results in significant volumes of waste material which are typically disposed of by land application. Concerns over the potential environmental impacts of poultry waste disposal have resulted in ongoing efforts to develop management practices which maintain high quality of water downstream of disposal areas. The timing of application to minimize waste constituent losses is a management practice with the potential to ensure high quality of streams, rivers, and lakes downstream of receiving areas. This paper describes the development and application of a method to identify which time of year is best, from the standpoint of surface water quality, for land application of poultry waste. The procedure consists of using a mathematical simulation model to estimate average nitrogen and phosphorus losses resulting from different application timings, and then identifying the timings which minimize losses of these nutrients. The procedure was applied to three locations in Arkansas, and three different criteria for optimality of application timing were investigated. One criterion was oriented strictly to water quality, one was oriented only to crop production, and the last was a combination. The criteria resulted in different windows of time being identified as optimal. Optimal windows also varied with location of the receiving area. The results indicate that it is possible to land-apply poultry waste at times which both minimize nutrient losses and maximize crop yield.     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.     

绵阳城区环境质量现状及对策

本文叙述了绵阳城区的环境质量现状。根据绵阳历史及发展，到２０１０年要建成为１００万人口的大城市，提出未来的绵阳城区既是一个开放型、式功能、综合性的现代化中心城市，又应是一个环境优美、整齐清洁、繁荣兴旺、高度文明的现代化城市。必须高度重视环境保护工作，建议采取包括环境规划、抓好环境建设及环境管理等措施。     

长年关水稻田耕作改制的选择

试验研究表明,当早稻收获时间作晚稻才开始幼穗分化,即适宜早、晚稻出穗开花之间有60多天的时间,种植双杂间作稻就可获得好的收成,效果、效益都很显著。1992年用D 优287间汕优63,在达县永进乡的示范田中个别田块产量已达15t/ha,而盆地丘陵区适宜早、晚稻出穗开花之间的时间多数地区不到70天,种植双杂连作稻有困难。且双杂间作稻在抗灾增产,合理利用农村劳动力,提高稻田复种等方面优于双杂连作稻。因此,四川盆地丘陵区的中稻→冬水田在耕作改制中发展部分双杂间作稻是恰当的,其范围在巴中、盐亭、简阳一线以南海拔400m 以下的广大丘陵区。